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As we approach a new year, it’s time for our annual ritual of synthesizing the lessons from the past twelve months and formulating the outlook for the next twelve. 2024 was an incremental year for AR & VR, which both continue to gradually trudge uphill toward mainstream traction.
Highlights this year include XR’s initial convergence with AI, Apple Vision Pro’s slow traction, and some ups and downs for VR. 2024 was also defined by the rise of low-immersion smart glasses, and aspirational high-immersion AR glasses like Snap Spectacles and Meta Orion.
All these approaches – passthrough AR, seethrough AR, and non-display smart glasses – represent a divergence and diversification of form factors. That’s a good thing, as XR should include several formats that are purpose-built and use-case-driven – a key trend seen this year.
With that backdrop, what will 2025 look like in spatial computing? Aligned with the more extensive predictions of our research arm, ARtillery Intelligence, we’ve devised 5 predictions. We’ll break them down weekly, continuing here with prediction 3: Meta Orion Inspires Seethrough AR.
Prediction 1: AR & AI Collide
Prediction 2: XR Form Factors Diverge & Diversify
Prediction 3: Meta Orion Inspires Seethrough AR
Prediction 4: Mixed Reality Development Amps Up
Prediction 5: Visual Search’s Mainstream Move
Annual Predictions: 2024 Lessons, 2025 Outlook
Renewed Confidence
One of the unforeseen results of Richard Bannister’s record-breaking four-minute mile in 1954 was that, in the record’s wake, there was an inflection in other athletes who achieved the same milestone. Why the surge? Because for the first time, everyone knew that it could be done.
A similar dynamic could result in the wake of Meta Orion’s technical achievement. Even though it’s a working prototype rather than a marketed product, it has shown the world that several breakthroughs are possible in achieving AR glasses that are both UX-rich and relatively stylish.
Beyond Orion, Snap Spectacles likewise launched in September with a lauded design and technical proficiency. The result is that both devices mark renewed confidence in technically-challenged and beleaguered seethrough AR-based approaches, also known as optical AR.
As further background on that last point, the fall of Microsoft HoloLens and the market challenges faced by Magic Leap have caused many AR proponents to go sour on see-through AR. That includes the trend towards passthrough-AR in devices such as Vision Pro and Quest 3/3s.
From Audible to Augmented: Segmenting the Spatial Spectrum
Realm of Possibility
Speaking of Apple, it’s the company that will likely be most influenced by Meta Orion’s technical achievement. The device is what Apple (and Tim Cook especially) always wanted Vision Pro to be. The underlying tech wasn’t available at the time to build that version of Vision Pro.
And it still isn’t, as shown by the fact that Meta Orion isn’t a marketed product but rather a working prototype. But even as a prototype, Orion has demonstrated to Apple what is within the realm of possibility. That brings us back to Richard Bannister’s effect on runners in 1954.
Furthermore, Apple is one of the few companies with the means to build an Orion counterpoint. We’re confident there are already meetings underway in Cupertino since Meta unveiled Orion – with likely consternation from Cook who was told the Orion-like form factor wasn’t possible.
Even prior to Orion, rumors circulated that Apple had post-Vision Pro devices on its roadmap. Those included a streamlined Vision (non-Pro) at a $2000 price tag. And elsewhere in the road map is an Orion-like device – again Apple’s endgame and Tim Cook’s ultimate AR target.
Passthrough vs. Seethrough AR: The Answer is ‘Both’
Boiling it Down: 2025 Prediction
Orion will inspire several AR providers to rethink their road maps. But that will take years to manifest in tangible products. Apple will be the only player with consequential near-term moves inspired by Orion. It won’t result in a product in 2025, but Apple next year will accelerate production of a see-through-AR device for a 2027 or later release.
We’ll pause there and circle back next week with another 2025 prediction. Meanwhile, check out the full report.
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