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One of our predictions in 2018 was that Oculus Go’s “moment of truth” will come in the holiday quarter. With a giftable price point starting at $199, it’s a telling period for the device’s potential to be the consumer VR accelerant we think it can be. Like many things, this is a matter of timing.

So where are we with Oculus Go sales so far? There’s no official figure, but evidence is building. For one, IDC’s Device Tracker* revealed that Oculus GO and Mi VR (China equivalent) collectively sold 250,000 units in Q3. Given that 60,000 were MiVR, the remaining 190,000 were Oculus Go.

If we annualize that, and adjust for the fact that Oculus Go was only available for three quarters in 2018 (May 1 launch date), it’s about 570,000 units. But given stronger sales (our speculation*) in its release and holiday quarters, it’s conceivable that the device sold up to 800,000 units in 2018.

Image credit: Facebook/Oculus

To cross-reference that, let’s bring in another piece of evidence. Last week the Oculus app for Android passed one million downloads. For those unfamiliar, this is the app you use to set up Oculus Go. But clouding things a bit is the fact that it’s also used to install Rift Games remotely.

So let’s break that down. If half those downloads were for Oculus Go (again, speculation), that’s 500,000 units. But keep in mind, that’s only Android. If the equivalent app downloads happened on iOS (speculation), that’s up to one million total — a bit higher than the above 800,000 estimate.

This is admittedly just a thought exercise given several variables, but directionally valuable we hope. Based on several signals we track in ongoing market sizing,* we previously estimated 990,000 Oculus Gos sold in 2018. That’s closer to the higher end of the two estimates above.

Of course, the jury is still out on full-year sales figures from the primary source (Oculus). But we may get an announcement soon if it hits a round-number milestone (like one-million units). Though Oculus is quiet about sales figures, it rightly takes PR opportunities to broadcast the health of VR.

Back to the IDC figures,* PSVR surprisingly outsold Go during Q3 with 463 million units. PSVR is advantaged by a strong installed base of compatible PS4 consoles — now up to 92 million — but we’re still bullish on Oculus Go’s pricing advantages and appeal for mainstream consumers.

* Any market-sizing figures (including that of our research arm ARtillery Intelligence) should be taken with a grain of salt. Methodologies for data collection should always be examined. The same goes for the above thought exercise in extrapolating figures for directional market estimates. 

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Disclosure: AR Insider has no financial stake in the companies mentioned in this post, nor received payment for its production. Disclosure and ethics policy can be seen here.

Header image credit: Facebook/Oculus