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Like many analyst firms, market sizing is one of the ongoing practices of AR Insider’s research arm, ARtillery Intelligence. A few times per year, it goes into isolation and buries itself deep in financial modeling. One such exercise zeroes in on VR revenues.
This is one of the subdivisions of spatial computing – others include mobile AR and headworn AR. They’re all related and share technological underpinnings, but are driven by separate market forces such as their respective hardware bases (see methodology and inclusions).
So what did the VR forecast uncover? At a high level, Global VR revenue is projected to grow from $12.2 billion in 2024 to $18.9 billion in 2029, a 9.12 percent compound annual growth rate. This sum consists of consumer and enterprise spending and their revenue subsegments.
Drilling down, our latest Behind the Numbers installment breaks down the unit sales that stand behind the above figures. Because hardware is a primary component of VR revenues – and the foundation for software revenue – device unit sales are a key factor for VR industry health.
Good News & Bad
Starting at the top, VR headsets are projected to grow in unit sales from 3.94 million in 2024 to 6.85 million in 2029. That correlates to an installed base of 34.46 million units in 2029. For comparison’s sake, this is slower than AR headset growth, including non-display AI glasses.
These revenue figures include consumer and enterprise spending, the former leading with 2.49 million units sold in 2024, growing to 4.37 million units in 2029. The market share leader is Meta with a 67 percent market share in units sold across consumer and enterprise markets.
Meta’s lead is primarily driven by its deep-pocketed R&D investments – though they’ve been scaled back to a degree – and loss-leader pricing. For the latter, it offers affordable price ranges (sub-$500) where demand inflects according to our separate consumer VR survey research.
But it’s not all good news. Many signals we track indicate that 2025 saw softened VR demand. For example, Meta’s last few quarterly earnings reveal slowing growth for Quest headsets. Fortunately for Meta, the rapid sales growth and scale of smartglasses offset those declines.
Extending from that, Meta’s figures are also useful in extrapolating the health of the rest of the VR market, most of which isn’t required to report revenue. If demand for Meta headsets is softening, it reflects broader VR market attrition – a sort of weathervane for the industry.
Questions Remain
But though Meta’s public disclosures may be a good weathervane, its loss-leader pricing insulates it more than competitors from the effects of softening demand. In other words, price elasticity in VR’s early stages has greater negative impact on higher-ticket items like Apple Vision Pro.
Elsewhere in the VR landscape, we see vendor-specific dynamics that inform sales estimates. For example, HTC continues to see traction in the enterprise. It pivoted to an enterprise focus after Meta compressed margins in consumer markets through aggressive price competition.
Growth was also seen last year for Bigscreen, given the demand and positive reviews around its Beyond 2 headset. Signs indicated explosive growth in its initial market entrance; however, questions remain whether that demand hit a ceiling or will sustain for longer periods.
Another question mark is Steam Frame. It has several benefits on paper, but we’ll need to see the market speak when it launches later this year – a date that could be pushed back. That and all other aspects of the unsteady VR market will need constant attention and analysis.
We’ll pause there and circle back in the next Behind the Numbers installment with more numbers & narratives. Meanwhile, check out the full report.